Reservas Cambiais e Reservas de Ferro - Art Charles Putz - Brasil Economico

publicado dia 22/07/2011:
http://www.brasileconomico.com.br/noticias/reservas-cambiais-e-reservas-de-ferro_104772.html

Exame.com - seção Estilo de Vida - Charles Putz - Skate

Charles Putz, executivo e empresário, skatista veterano citado com foto na seção Estilo de Vida na Exame.com.br:
http://exame.abril.com.br/estilo-de-vida/esportes/noticias/skatistas-veteranos-se-reunem-em-arena-para-maiores-de-35

O Sucesso do IPO do LinkedIn e A Bolha de Newton

É um bom momento para relembrar este tema.  O artigo anexo e abaixo que publiquei no jornal Brasil Economico continua bem atual:

http://www.brasileconomico.com.br/noticias/a-bolha-de-newton_71758.html

A bolha de Newton

16/11/09 07:04 | Charles Putz - Presidente da Namisa

Sir Isaac Newton é conhecido de todos como o pai da física clássica. Mas há um lado de Newton menos conhecido. No século 18, ele era o Master of the Mint, à frente da Casa da Moeda britânica.
Desse camarote privilegiado, ele acompanhou os desdobramentos de um dos grandes negócios da China da história do capitalismo, a venda de ações da South Sea.
A companhia fora fundada em 1711 para assumir 10 milhões de libras da dívida da coroa. Em troca, recebeu pagamento de juros anual e o monopólio do comércio com as colônias espanholas da América do Sul.
A empresa era deficitária, mas como instituição financeira era um portento. Transformou a dívida em ações e, para oferecer um preço que interessasse aos credores do governo, inflou como pôde esse valor.
Cada ação tinha valor de face de 100 libras e dois meses depois já valia o triplo. O rei Jorge I, o poeta Alexander Pope e Isaac Newton, eram acionistas da South Sea - o que dava credibilidade à empresa, apesar de seu fraco desempenho.
As ações continuavam subindo (chegaram a mil libras). Até que a bolha estourou.
Os participantes da festa sabiam que não duraria para sempre,mas erraram o timming. Uns dizem que Newton perdeu dinheiro. O que se sabe é que ele deixou para a posteridade uma frase célebre: "Sei calcular o movimento dos corpos celestes, não a loucura das pessoas".
É dessa época a expressão bubble companies. Curioso é que tais bolhas, volta e meia, apareçam para assombrar o capitalismo, e não só em companhias, mas em economias inteiras.
Sabe-se que existe o risco de a bolha estourar, mas ninguém quer deixar de ganhar dinheiro antes do estouro, confiando que não se trata de uma bolha, ou que saberá a hora certa de sair.
Timming é tudo-ou sorte, a depender do ponto de vista. O certo é que o sentido de manada prevalece no mercado.
Quem sai antes não é chamado de prudente, mas de trouxa. Caso erre ao menos não está sozinho.
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Charles Laganá Putz é presidente da Namisa - Nacional Minérios S/A

Os Juros tem de Baixar

Continua válio o artigo que publiquei no jornal Brasil Economico:

http://www.brasileconomico.com.br/noticias/os-juros-tem-de-baixar_70894.html

Os juros têm de baixar

31/10/09 07:06 | Charles Putz 

Está em voga uma "verdade" pela qual para manter o país nos eixos em um cenário de crescimento econômico é preciso elevar os juros. A culpa seria da pressão inflacionária. Pitonisas alertam que será inevitável um aumento na taxa Selic a partir de 2008. Pode ser. Mas no longo prazo eles não vão subir. Devem até cair.
Para entender o dilema dos juros altos vale recapitular uma lição básica de finanças: os juros compostos. Sem eles, não existiria crédito ou aplicações de longo prazo.
Se eu empresto R$ 100 a uma taxa de juros de 10% ao ano, vou receber no final R$ 110. Ou rolar os R$ 110, de modo que tenha a receber ao final do segundo ano do empréstimo R$ 121, (10% sobre R$ 110 e não 20% sobre R$ 100). Se quem tomou o empréstimo não quiser manter a dívida não há problema. Posso emprestar os R$ 110 à outra pessoa, que concordará em calcular os juros sobre R$ 110, e não sobre R$ 100. É assim que funciona.
Se no final de dois anos parece bobagem quem empresta e quem toma o empréstimo brigar por R$ 1, os juros compostos, a longo prazo, tem efeitos incríveis.
Vamos imaginar que você pudesse escolher entre um deposito de R$ 100 todos os anos, desde o nascimento, numa aplicação sem juros, ou um único depósito de 100 reais numa conta de poupança que rende 6% de juros ao ano.
Quando a velhice chegasse, aos 75 anos, e você estivesse no grupo do depósito anual de R$ 100, receberia R$ 7.500 (R$ 100 vezes 75 anos).
Parece melhor do que receber R$ 100 uma única vez, mas não é. No caso do depósito único, com juros compostos, a bolada seria de R$ 7.705,69. Se a aplicação fosse mais ousada, e pagasse 12% de juros ao ano, a conta chegaria a R$ 491.305,58. Mas vamos partir para uma opção mais agressiva: 50% de juros ao ano. Seria a velhice dos sonhos.
Em seu 75º aniversário, os R$ 100 depositados no nascimento teriam se transformado em R$ 1,6 quatrilhão. É o equivalente a 23 vezes a economia mundial. E tudo come çou com 100 unidades, no tempo de vida de uma pessoa.
A conclusão é óbvia: é impossível manter uma política de juros altos por muito tempo. Ela não cabe na realidade. Do contrário, qualquer quantia aplicada vai se transformar num bolo maior que toda a economia do planeta. É só questão de tempo.
Se Pedro Álvares Cabral tivesse aplicado uma libra esterlina a juros de 1% ao mês em comemoração ao Descobrimento do Brasil, 322 anos depois, na independência do país, seus descendentes teriam no bolso 49 quatrilhões de libras. Muitas vezes mais que o valor monetário de todo o mundo, mesmo nos dias de hoje.
O Brasil ficou preso a altas taxas de inflação por muito tempo. Hoje está preso a altas taxas de juros. O medo é que se os juros baixarem, a inflação volte.
Se o governo fizer o que tem que ser feito, e reduzir gastos públicos, poderá baixar os juros sem provocar inflação. Baixar os juros será mais eficiente para reduzir o excesso de valorização do real do que criar antipáticos impostos sobre a entrada de capital estrangeiro.
É uma questão de tempo: os juros reais no Brasil vão baixar mais. Trata-se até de uma necessidade matemática. Um aplicador em juros no Brasil não poderá acumular mais que toda economia do mundo.
Ou os juros baixam, ou o calote será inevitável.
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Charles Laganá Putz é diretor presidente da Namisa - Nacional Minérios S/A

Gestão de Expectativas

Leia artigo que publiquei no jornal Brasil Economico:
http://www.brasileconomico.com.br/noticias/gestao-de-expectativas_72574.html

Gestão de expectativas

01/12/09 07:08 | Charles Putz - Presidente da Namisa

Na semana passada assisti a um filme muito bom. Mas saí do cinema decepcionado. Ouvi falar tão bem dele que esperava mais. É questão de expectativa. No fundo, não adoramos o que é ótimo, mas o que excede nossas expectativas.

O primeiro capítulo dos livros de marketing começava ensinando que o objetivo era atender as necessidades do consumidor. Evoluíram para dizer "atender, ou exceder, as expectativas do cliente". Quando queremos promover algo, nosso papel é elevar as expectativas do consumidor.
Do contrário, não despertamos interesse. Por outro lado, como o segredo está em exceder as expectativas, se as elevamos demais, depois não conseguimos entregar o que prometemos.
Gerir bem expectativas é a chave do sucesso para muito mais coisas na vida do que marketing de produtos.
Tome como exemplo um candidato - a um emprego, a um cargo público, a umromance. Para ser escolhido é necessário oferecer algo que supere o interesse imediato do outro. Mas para realmente dar certo é preciso ir além das expectativas iniciais.
Meu exemplo preferido para mostrar o poder de manter as expectativas baixas e depois excedê-las é a apresentação de Paul Potts no programa de televisão Britain's Got Talent.
Aparece diante do público e dos jurados um vendedor de celulares com os dentes tortos, barrigudo emal vestido.
Perguntam-lhe o que ele vai cantar, e ele responde: "ópera". Quando abriu a boca emocionou a todos cantando Nessun Dorma de Puccini.
Os jurados ficaram de boca aberta. Ouvi de entendidos de música que Potts é muito bom, mas não extraordinário.
A questão é que não se esperava nada dele, e ele excedeu as expectativas.
O mercado financeiro também é movimentado por expectativas. O capital busca investimentos com base na expectativa de retorno dos mesmos. No mundo globalizado os recursos fluem para os países onde as expectativas são mais altas.
As altas expectativas em torno do Brasil provocam uma enxurrada de dinheiro para cá. Esta é uma das razões para a valorização do real, talvez além do desejável.
A percepção do Brasil e as expectativas em relação ao mesmo costumam balançar feito um pêndulo. Em 1941 o austríaco Stefan Zweig escreveu o livro "Brasil, País do Futuro".
Em 1963 Charles de Gaulle disse que "o Brasil não é um país sério". Ditadura, milagre econômico, hiperinflação, planos econômicos... o pêndulo balançou para um lado e para o outro. Em 2001 Jim O'Neil ressuscitou o país do futuro ao criar o termo BRIC.
O recente artigo de capa Brazil takes off da revista The Economist é motivo de orgulho para qualquer brasileiro, nos fazendo imaginar que o futuro chegou. Entretanto, como o subtítulo do artigo coloca, o risco desta história de sucesso é um orgulho arrogante (hubris).
Há muito que fazer para atendermos todas as expectativas em torno do país. Poderemos tropeçar na falta de poupança interna, nos gastos excessivos do governo, nos índices de criminalidade, na corrupção e nas falhas do sistema de educação.
Se não fizermos nossa lição de casa e gerirmos bem as expectativas, um tropeço poderá levar o pêndulo novamente para o lado oposto.
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Charles Laganá Putz é presidente da Namisa - Nacional Minérios S/A

Cruce de los Andes 2011 - Our Experience published in the Adventure World Magazine

The article I wrote on my wife's and my experience in the 100 km race Cruce de los Andes 2011 was published in the Adventure World Magazine.  Check it out on page 51:
http://www.adventureworldmagazine.com/pdf/2011/issue14.pdf?bcsi_scan_A3ADCC3FD7899CC2=0&bcsi_scan_filename=issue14.pdf

Cruce de los Andes 2011 - Our Experience

My wife, Verena Schultze, and I, Charles Putz, are from Brazil and participated last February of the Cruce de los Andes (Cruce).  This means “The Cross of the Andes”, a three stage 100 km single modality (trekking/running) adventure race that crosses the south Andes from Argentina to Chile.  The Cruce crosses the Andes in Patagonia, where the mountains aren’t very high, and the race is in summer, so if the sun shines it can be hot during the day, but since it isn’t far from the South Pole at night it gets cold.  It was the 10^th year the race was organized, and we had heard a lot about how beautiful it was.  Each year a new, special path is chosen.  The organizer promised “this year is going to be the most difficult so far, in return you will have spectacular scenery in a priceless natural environment.” 

We trained on our own without support from any trainer; with all the time constraints inherit to our lives, having to dedicate most of our time to work and family, besides practicing other unrelated sports.  Probably we trained less than most participants, but we believe we did the right kind of training.  Whenever we could, we went on long, technical but beautiful trails.  A part from short weekday training, any asphalt or indoor running was an exception.  For sure a good choice was to go two weeks before the race to Itatiaia National Park, in Brazil.  The highest mountains near where we live are in that park, which in addition to steep long difficult trails, gave us an acclimatization opportunity at 2500 meters.

We left home at six in the morning of Tuesday February 1^st, flew from Sao Paulo to Buenos Aires, then Bariloche, and got into a 5 hours bus ride to San Martin de los Andes, arriving late at night at the official host city of the race.  The next day we got our race kit with official shirt, chip, and many nice things supplied by the sponsors, got our back pack ready for the first day with all the required equipment and food/drink for the first day, and made all the rest of our stuff like tent, sleeping back, and things for the following days, fit into the container supplied by the organization.  After everything was ready we went for a jog on the lakeside with a scenic view.  The greatest concern we had at this moment was with the weather.  We heard that last year the weather was terrible, to the extent that a bridge fell and the trucks couldn’t arrive with the containers, making more teams give-up than any other year.  The weather channel forecasted zero chance of rain, but we observed a strong wind coming in, the sky getting dark and water starting to pour down!  At night we had the first race briefing.  The organizer explained how the race was going to be: we were going to camp each night next to a lake, where the following morning would be the start, going uphill, trekking through the mountains ridge, and then down to another lake.  In the third day we would cross the border arriving in Chile.  However, he added (only in Spanish – and this is one of the few criticisms to the organization) that there was a change in plans for the first night.  Very strong winds were expected for late afternoon at our camp site, which could make it impossible to set up our tents.  So we were going to camp at a somewhat sheltered place, three and a half kilometers from the race start.  Friday morning, before the race, we would have to walk to the start, which was going to be delayed in half an hour. 

On Thursday after an early lunch we got into the organization’s busses and travelled four hours to our first camp site, close to Lake Rucachoroi.  We carried our container from the truck to a flat free space we located, where we set up our tent.  At night it got very cold, and in the morning we had to wipe out the frost from our tent before packing it into the container and carrying it back to the trucks.  The Argentine army prepared a real military operation to cook for more than 1000 people.  The next days we would repeat the ritual of carrying our containers, finding a nice spot for our tent, facing long lines to go to the bathroom, and to get more of the same food, lunch and dinner.  That wouldn’t leave us much free time.

The first day was the easiest, and great for marathon racers who had some experience in trails and hills.  There were dirt roads or trails in the entire path from Lake Rucachoroi to Lake Ñorquinco, with no extreme slops, in a total of 31.2km and “only” about 500 meters of height gain plus 600 meters downwards.  For us, it was disappointing.  The view was very nice, but we have seen better, and the trails were “too easy”.  We thought a typical day would take us at least five hours, but we arrived after 3:34 hs, in position 154 out of 500 teams.  The fastest team took only 2:08 hs, while the average team took a little over 4 hours, and the slowest 8:03 hs.

At night, during the briefing of the next day, the organizer announced: “Today was difficult, but tomorrow is going to be brutal!  Enjoy every minute and don’t miss any of the spectacular landscape!”  More than a thousand people started chatting concerned about what he meant.  We thought: this is going to be our day!

 

Second Day – the real challenge

To avoid jamming, we started out in groups of 100 teams, based on the time of the first day.  After an initial seven kilometers of fairly flat trails, overcrowding became inevitable when we turned left and started climbing through a single track where it was very difficult to pass other teams.  The trail was steeper and less defined than the day before.  There were many logs, roots and loose stones on the way.  About half way up the first mountain participants understood why this was an adventure race and not a trail race.  There were no trails!  Some parts required climbing, not just hiking.  But this wasn’t yet what the organizer meant by brutal!  After more than 600 meters of difficult ascent, we went through a short downhill and then faced another 300 meters of even steeper uphill, on even more difficult terrain.  What most imagined to be a semi-flat mountain ridge were they could run turned out to be a series of steep ups and downs, without trails, on such difficult terrain that it was nearly impossible to keep a good pace.  In some cases we had to jump from stone to stone.  The total altitude gain adding everything was close to 2000 meters, which also meant about 1900 meters of downhill, in a total of 31.2 km.  On the other hand, the view was truly rewarding.  We looked to our right and saw several Andenean lakes, and to our left the stunning Chilean snow capped volcanoes.  The day was so clear that everything was gorgeous.  We had the impression that looking towards east we could see the Atlantic and on the other side the Pacific.

Since we aren’t fast on the easier trails, in addition to the 100 teams which left in front of us, some teams passed us in the first 7 km.  Where things got really difficult, we more than recovered, passing many teams.  We knew that some would pass us back in the last kilometers which were well defined downhill trails, but what we didn’t count was on Verena’s knees giving up.  Not only she couldn’t run, but she had pain even to walk.  The trekking polls, which had already proven very useful in the steep hills, saved us.   So we lost about half an hour and enjoyed a wonderful trail in a beautiful araucaria (type of South American pine) forest, while several teams passed us back.  We arrived at Lake Moquehue after 6:06 hs in 132^nd position.   The first team arrived after 3:32 hs, and it took 12:09 hs for the last team.  There was supposed to be a nine hour limit, but so many teams exceeded this time that the organization allowed all who wanted to continue the next day. 

In the briefing the night before the last day, it was announced that the third day would be as difficult and gorgeous as the second day.  Instructions were passed about crossing the border, again only in Spanish, and an alternative rout was offered for teams who wanted to go through a 30 km dirt road, reaching the same destination.  Our strategy was to save energy in the first and second days to increase the chances of achieving our main goal: finishing the race.  But we weren’t sure how well Verena’s knees would hold on the last day.  She took an anti-inflammatory before going to bed, and joked that she had to go up the mountain again the next day to search for her knees which she had forgotten on the mountain. 

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Third Day – The Overcome

For some reason the organization decided that all 1000 runners would start together.  Our planning experience played an important role.  We examined the maps and realized that in spite of what was announced, we were actually going to have a lot less altitude gain than the day before, about 1200 meters versus almost 2000, and the total distance was going to be one kilometer shorter.  We also observed that after 5 km we were going to start going uphill in a single track, where it would be difficult to pass.  It was the last day and we didn’t have to save any energy for the following day.  So we decided we would run faster than our normal pace to try to get ahead of as many teams possible before hitting the single track.  That proved to be a very good strategy.  In addition to the difficulties of passing other teams, there were three places where inevitable lines formed.  First was a large fallen tree in a steep single track, and then a real charm which was added to the race: a rock we had to climb, and later a short rappel on the way down.  We had a combined waiting time in the three lines of less than half an hour, while the last teams had to wait a total of almost two hours.  We were feeling so well, so full of energy and enthusiasm, enjoying the marvelous view, that we kept a much faster pace than the first days, passing many teams.  On the way down, into a lovely forest, we ran by a man sitting under a tree who announced: “welcome to Chile, when you finish the race please present your documents”.

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After 4 hs 36 min we crossed the finish line in Lake Icalma, Chile, and were greeted by someone hanging a medal to our necks as they pronounced our names.  This was a really special moment.  We looked at the medals and saw our names engraved.  We congratulate the organization for this initiative, done for all 992 competitors who finished the race.  We had not only achieved our main objective of finishing the race, and our second objective of staying among the first half, but we arrived in 60^th the last day, and 99^th in the combined 3 stages of the race.  We arrived 22^nd out of 128 mixed couples, and among the first mixed couples of a combined age of more than 80, possibly first of a combined age of more than 90 (only male and female teams were officially age ranked).  We did much better than expected.

Many people describe how after surviving a serious health problem, or a traumatic experience such as kidnapping, it seems like the problems of the world got smaller, many things that bothered them didn’t seem to matter anymore.  Although in a much less intense manner, after achieving the objective of finishing this race, we have the privilege of having the same kind of feeling, without having experienced any disgrace.  Overcoming challenges like this makes us feel lighter and believe that a lot more can be achieved than most people imagine to be possible.

Charles Putz

March 2011

P.S. I wrote this race report while in bed waiting for a second surgery after an unrelated fall in which I destroyed my right foot (dislocated the ankle, had multiple fractures, complete rupture of ligaments and of joint capsule).  I kept thinking about the race being certain that I’ll be able to run again, and remembering a competitor who even with a prosthetic foot finished the race.